Inside Elon Musk’s Big Plans for Twitter

Elon Musk has never been accused of dreaming small. He has reinvented at least two industries with Tesla, his electronic vehicle company, and SpaceX, the rocket company – and now his ambitions are carrying over his $ 44 billion acquisition of Twitter.

Mr. Musk, the richest man in the world, has presented a pitch deck to investors in recent days outlining his grand – some might say incredible – plans for Twitter and its financial goals. The New York Times received the presentation. Here’s a peek into what Mr. Musk sees the social media service in the years ahead.

In his pitch deck, Mr. Musk claimed it would increase Twitter’s annual revenue to $ 26.4 billion by 2028, up from $ 5 billion last year.

Under Mr. Musk, advertising would fall to 45 percent of total revenue, down from about 90 percent in 2020. In 2028, advertising would generate $ 12 billion in revenue and subscriptions about $ 10 billion, according to the document. Other revenue would come from businesses licensing such data.

Mr. Musk plans to boost Twitter’s subscription revenue with services such as Twitter Blue, for which users pay $ 3 a month to customize their experience on the app. According to the pitch deck, Mr. Musk expects $ 69 million in revenue from Twitter Blue by 2025.

A separate product, X Subscribers, would hit $ 47 million in revenue that same year, according to the document. The document didn’t detail what X Subscribers was, but Mr. Musk has hinted at an ad-free experience on Twitter.

Twitter would bring in $ 15 million from a payments business in 2023, according to the document, which would grow to about $ 1.3 billion by 2028. The company’s payments business today, which includes tipping and shopping, is negligible. There has been speculation that Mr. Musk may be introducing payment abilities to Twitter that he helped popularize PayPal, the digital payments service.

With all of these changes, Mr. Musk expects Twitter’s average revenue per user – a key metric for social media companies – to $ 30.22 in 2028 from $ 24.83 last year, according to the document.

By 2025, Mr. Musk anticipates Twitter will have 11,072 employees, according to the document. That would have been up from about 7,500 today.

But in between, Mr. Musk expects the number to fluctuate, rising to 9,225 employees in 2022, then declining to 8,332 in 2023 before rising again. Mr. Musk is expected to shed the workforce as part of his takeover, before bringing in new talent in engineering, a person with knowledge of the situation said. Stock-based compensation costs are also expected to rise to just over $ 3 billion by 2028, from $ 914 million in 2022.

Twitter will add about $ 13 billion of debt as part of Mr. Musk’s buyout plan. But it expects to pay that debt down as free cash flow – a measure of how much money a company has to service its debt – is set to grow to $ 3.2 billion in 2025 and $ 9.4 billion in 2028, according to the pitch deck. Free cash flow will rise even as operating costs and costs also rose, according to the document.

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